The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has now reached a decisive moment. Meanwhile, recent exit polls clearly show that Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is trailing behind the NDA. Consequently, the numbers suggest a tough road ahead for the opposition alliance. Therefore, the coming days will be crucial for both sides as they await the final results.
Exit-Poll Picture: Insights from the Bihar Assembly Election 2025
Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 project a clear lead for the NDA. Most surveys give the alliance between 130 and 160 seats, well above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, which includes the RJD, is expected to win around 70 to 100 seats.
Voter participation has been remarkable this year. The second phase recorded nearly 69% turnout, the highest in Bihar’s history. This surge shows that the electorate was highly engaged and motivated to shape the state’s future.
Image credit: By FlyJet777 – Own work based on Wahlkreise zur Vidhan Sabha von Bihar.svg by Furfur, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Source: Wikimedia Commons.
What it means for RJD and the alliance
The trailing numbers now raise several key questions for RJD and its allies. Therefore, they need to carefully analyze why their campaign failed to gain the momentum they expected. To begin with, they must re-evaluate their narrative and messaging. Perhaps, their promises on jobs, governance, and regional development did not connect strongly enough with a broad section of voters.
Moreover, the party may need to rethink how these issues were communicated and whether the message truly resonated across different voter groups.
Second, alliance unity is at stake. The Mahagathbandhan needs to decide whether its current structure and leadership still work.
Third, damage control is essential. Even if results are weak overall, the party can protect its core strongholds.
Finally, RJD leaders must prepare for a post-election strategy. If the NDA forms the next government, RJD will need to focus on becoming a stronger, issue-driven opposition.
Why the shift may have happened
Several factors might explain the shift in voter preference. The record turnout hints at strong pro-incumbency sentiment. Many voters may have preferred stability and continuity over change.
The NDA emphasized welfare programs and governance results throughout the campaign. That message seems to have resonated more than the opposition’s calls for reform.
The rise of smaller parties also split votes in certain constituencies. This division weakened the RJD’s traditional base and allowed NDA candidates to gain the upper hand.
What’s Next for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025?
Official results will be announced on 14 November 2025. Until then, all projections remain estimates.
If the final results confirm the exit polls, Tejashwi Yadav’s alliance will need a new approach. The party might focus on rebuilding its image, improving organization, and strengthening its appeal among young voters.
For the NDA, the challenge will be to convert its projected win into effective governance and public satisfaction.
No matter who takes power, the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has already set a new benchmark for voter engagement. The record turnout reflects a population eager for progress and accountability. This election could reshape Bihar’s political landscape for years to come.
Source: Hindustan Times
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